The most likely winner is A24’s Everything Everywhere All at Once, which received numerous awards including the Producers Guild Award, which is selected by a preferential voting, as well as the Critics Choice and Spirit Awards. A surprise could come from German-language All Quiet on the Western Front, which dominated at the BAFTA Awards (indicating strong European support), and would be Netflix’s first-ever winner in this category, or Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick, a critical and commercial success that helped to revive theatrical moviegoing. However, the Academy’s preferential ballot wouldn’t seem to favor such a polarizing film — many Academy members love it, while many others found it incomprehensible. Mr. Scott Feinberg
This two-man civil war tragicomedy, which demonstrates a new maturity and depth of feeling from Martin McDonagh, makes my heart pound the hardest. Each member of the ensemble creates exquisite character portraits, and Jenny the little donkey steals the show. Tár, Todd Field’s scathing examination of power abuse, would be another deserving winner. — Rooney, David
Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Golden Globe winner Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), who last took home the trophy in this category 24 years ago, all have supporters. However, the Directors Guild, which has predicted this Oscar all but eight times in the previous 74 years, awarded Everything Everywhere All at Once’s Daniels (Kwan and Scheinert) their top honor. — SF
It’s difficult to choose: Field’s forensic expertise, taking chances at every turn with a stunningly fragile protagonist whose outrageous hubris draws us in instead of alienating us? McDonagh’s virtuosic mastery of words and impeccable sense of tone? Or Daniels’ mastery of a tale that keeps expanding? By a narrow margin, Field is the field leader. — DR
The four plausible winners: three much-loved vets — Living’s Bill Nighy, the senior nominee at 73; Banshees’ Colin Farrell, a Golden Globe winner; and The Whale’s Brendan Fraser, who won Critics Choice and SAG awards — plus Elvis’s breakout Austin Butler, a Globe and BAFTA winner. Farrell and Butler hail from best pic nominees; it’s been 13 years since this category’s winner didn’t. Edge to the showier part. — SF
